🧾 Retro — Calls Expiring Today

• DP-2026-05-20-AHI-BITCOIN-IMMEDIATE [crypto / BTC/USD]: HIT (+1) — Rejection at the 200-day SMA played out as expected. Next time: keep the thesis, but continue requiring the same confirmation quality before publishing.
• DP-2026-05-20-AHI-ETHEREUM-IMMEDIATE [crypto / ETH/USD]: MISS (-1) — ETH dropped 7.7%. Next time, account for higher beta to BTC downside during macro de-risking. Next time: re-check the core driver and demand stronger confirming evidence before taking the trade.
• DP-2026-05-20-AHI-SP500-IMMEDIATE [equities / SPY]: HIT (+1) — Market slumped on geopolitical news and rising yields. Next time: keep the thesis, but continue requiring the same confirmation quality before publishing.
• DP-2026-03-02-C02 [crypto / ETH]: HIT (+1) — ETH 2026-05-25 range=1.374% th=1.500% (H=2120.32 L=2091.28 C=2113.58) Next time: keep the thesis, but continue requiring the same confirmation quality before publishing.
• DP-2026-03-02-P01 [equities / XLE/SPY]: MISS (-1) — A=XLE ret=1.420%, B=SPY ret=9.355%, diff=-7.935%, th=2.000%, cmp=>= retro_lookup_date=2026-05-26 original_expiry_date=2026-05-25 Next time: re-check the core driver and demand stronger confirming evidence before taking the trade.
• DP-2026-05-11-T02 [volatility_derivatives / VIX]: MISS (-1) — VIX ret=-9.739% th=3.000% (vol up) Next time: re-check the core driver and demand stronger confirming evidence before taking the trade.
• DP-2026-05-11-T03 [crypto / SUI/USD]: MISS (-1) — SUI/USD Start=1.30 End=1.04 Return=-19.364% th=0.000% Next time: re-check the core driver and demand stronger confirming evidence before taking the trade.
• DP-2026-05-20-T01 [equities / SPY]: MISS (-1) — SPY Start=741.25 End=750.59 Return=1.260% th=0.000% retro_lookup_date=2026-05-26 original_expiry_date=2026-05-25 Next time: re-check the core driver and demand stronger confirming evidence before taking the trade.

Use this scorekeeping to calibrate conviction in the tactical, thesis, and monitoring sections that follow.

Assets of High Interest

Treat these worldview rows as the standing posterior state that should feed the tactical, portfolio, and monitoring sections below.

S&P 500 (SPY)

• Immediate (0-7d) BULLISH at 60% (+10pp). Technicals show positively layered moving averages and a desire to grind higher despite localized exhaustion in mega-caps. Rationale: Shifted from neutral to bullish based on strong technical momentum and historical extreme buy signals. Evidence: direct evidence. Invalidation: Daily close below 740.00.
• Near Term (8-14d) BULLISH at 60% (+0pp). Shifted from bearish to bullish as market breadth improves and Iran peace deal headlines provide a geopolitical risk-on bounce. Rationale: Shifted from bearish to bullish as the Iran peace deal headlines and improving market breadth offset consumer stress. Evidence: direct evidence. Invalidation: Break below 730.00.
• Short Term (15-60d) BULLISH at 60% (+5pp). Shifted from neutral to bullish as AI enthusiasm and corporate earnings optimism outweigh macro headwinds. Rationale: Shifted from neutral to bullish as AI infrastructure spending and geopolitical relief rallies provide strong short-term tailwinds. Evidence: direct evidence. Invalidation: Break below 720.00.
• Medium Term (61-180d) BULLISH at 65% (+0pp). AI infrastructure build-outs provide durable earnings growth. Rationale: Medium-term structural AI thesis remains intact without new contradictory evidence. Evidence: no direct evidence. Invalidation: Forward Q2 guidance cuts from hyperscalers.
• Annual Term (181-365d) BULLISH at 60% (+0pp). Structural shifts to AI-native operations remain intact. Rationale: Annual structural thesis remains intact without new contradictory evidence. Evidence: no direct evidence. Invalidation: Sustained break below 650.00.
• Long Term (366+d) BULLISH at 75% (+0pp). Deep integration of AI agents across the broader economy remains the base case. Rationale: Long-term structural thesis remains intact without new contradictory evidence. Evidence: no direct evidence. Invalidation: Multi-month close below 550.00.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

• Immediate (0-7d) NEUTRAL at 55% (+0pp). Heavy ETF outflows (6-day streak) are balanced by the geopolitical bounce from the Iran deal announcement. Rationale: Immediate neutral stance maintained as ETF outflows are perfectly offset by geopolitical relief rallies. Evidence: direct evidence. Invalidation: Reclaims $82,000 with strong spot volume.
• Near Term (8-14d) NEUTRAL at 50% (-10pp). Shifted from bearish to neutral as the Iran peace deal headlines and Nasdaq options approval offset ETF outflows. Rationale: Shifted from bearish to neutral as the Iran peace deal headlines and Nasdaq options approval offset ETF outflows. Evidence: direct evidence. Invalidation: Daily close above $80,000.
• Short Term (15-60d) NEUTRAL at 60% (+0pp). Long-term holder accumulation balances short-term ETF outflows. Rationale: Short-term neutral stance maintained as accumulation balances outflows. Evidence: no direct evidence. Invalidation: Weekly close below $70,000.
• Medium Term (61-180d) BULLISH at 70% (+0pp). Institutional adoption via RIA channels and new Nasdaq options continue to grow. Rationale: Medium-term bullish stance maintained, reinforced by Nasdaq options approval. Evidence: direct evidence. Invalidation: Break below $65,000.
• Annual Term (181-365d) BULLISH at 80% (+0pp). US Strategic Reserve legislative pushes provide strong tailwinds. Rationale: Annual bullish thesis remains intact without new contradictory evidence. Evidence: no direct evidence. Invalidation: Drop below $50,000.
• Long Term (366+d) BULLISH at 90% (+0pp). Deepest digital capital market and premier store-of-value asset. Rationale: Long-term bullish thesis remains intact without new contradictory evidence. Evidence: no direct evidence. Invalidation: Drop below $40,000.

Ethereum (ETH/USD)

• Immediate (0-7d) BEARISH at 65% (+0pp). Persistent institutional outflows and rotation into altcoins maintain downward pressure. Rationale: Immediate bearish stance maintained as ETF outflows and altcoin rotation continue. Evidence: direct evidence. Invalidation: Breakout above $2,465.
• Near Term (8-14d) BEARISH at 60% (+0pp). Technical vulnerability and ETF outflows compound weakness as capital rotates to newer narratives. Rationale: Near-term bearish stance maintained as ETF outflows and altcoin rotation continue. Evidence: direct evidence. Invalidation: Reclaims $2,300 on strong volume.
• Short Term (15-60d) NEUTRAL at 55% (+0pp). Tethered to broader crypto beta awaiting clear catalysts. Rationale: Short-term neutral stance maintained as ETH awaits clear catalysts. Evidence: no direct evidence. Invalidation: Drop below $2,000.
• Medium Term (61-180d) BULLISH at 65% (+0pp). TradFi tokenized funds provide medium-term tailwinds. Rationale: Medium-term bullish stance maintained based on TradFi tokenization tailwinds. Evidence: no direct evidence. Invalidation: Drop below $1,800.
• Annual Term (181-365d) BULLISH at 60% (+0pp). Tokenization market relies heavily on the Ethereum ecosystem. Rationale: Annual bullish thesis remains intact without new contradictory evidence. Evidence: no direct evidence. Invalidation: Drop below $1,500.
• Long Term (366+d) BULLISH at 70% (+0pp). Dominant platform for DeFi and stablecoin integration. Rationale: Long-term bullish thesis remains intact without new contradictory evidence. Evidence: no direct evidence. Invalidation: Drop below $1,200.

Trading Pulse — Tactical

The geopolitical bounce from the Iran peace deal headlines and strong technical momentum in equities dictate a risk-on tactical posture, while crypto requires selective rotation away from major caps.

• Horizon 1-5d Signal Grade B
• Why it matters: Technicals show positively layered moving averages and a desire to grind higher, supported by a relief rally on Iran deal optimism.
• Triggers Break above 748.00.
• Invalidation Close below 740.00.

• Horizon 1-5d Signal Grade A
• Why it matters: Investors are dumping Ether ETFs ($215M outflows) and rotating into altcoin products like Hyperliquid (HYPE) due to strong network activity and RWA-linked perpetuals.
• Triggers Continued ETH ETF outflows reported in daily flows.
• Invalidation ETH reclaims $2,300.

• Horizon 1-4w Signal Grade B
• Why it matters: Truckload spot rates hit all-time highs of $3.73/mile due to aggressive FMCSA enforcement and a SCOTUS ruling tightening broker liability and capacity.
• Triggers Spot rates hold above $3.70/mile for consecutive weeks.
• Invalidation Reversal in spot rates below $3.50/mile.

Portfolio / Thesis Pulse — Weeks to Months

The tactical resilience in equities reinforces a broader thesis of AI-driven productivity, while crypto infrastructure matures despite short-term ETF outflows.

• Horizon 3-6m Signal Grade B
• Why it matters: Nasdaq's conditional approval for cash-settled Bitcoin index options (QBTC) will democratize crypto risk management and drive institutional adoption, offsetting current spot ETF outflows.
• Triggers CFTC final clearance for QBTC options.
• Invalidation Sustained drop below $65,000.

• Horizon 3-6m Signal Grade B
• Why it matters: Short-seller Kerrisdale Capital highlights that Everspin Technologies lacks meaningful AI infrastructure positioning despite a 300% run-up, trading at absurd multiples compared to actual AI winners.
• Triggers Break below the 50-day moving average.
• Invalidation Major hyperscaler contract announcement.

• Horizon 3-6m Signal Grade B
• Why it matters: Northeast and Midwest housing markets remain tight with resilient price growth, contrasting with overvalued Sun Belt markets facing corrections and excess supply.
• Triggers Continued inventory declines in target Midwest/Northeast metros.
• Invalidation Sudden spike in Midwest housing inventory.

Signal Radar

Monitoring geopolitical developments and macroeconomic data releases will be critical to validating the current risk-on equity stance and crypto rotation.

• Horizon 1-2w Signal Grade B
• Why it matters: The announced Iran peace deal is highly contested, with Iran disputing Trump's claims and hawks exploding; a breakdown in talks could spike oil prices and derail the equity rally.
• Triggers Official collapse of Doha negotiations.
• Invalidation Signed agreement reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

• Horizon 1-3m Signal Grade C
• Why it matters: The upcoming SpaceX IPO faces high valuation concerns and a lack of profitability, creating significant risks for retail investors despite the hype and 5-for-1 stock split rumors.
• Triggers Official S-1 filing release.
• Invalidation First earnings report showing massive profitability.

Watchlist & Alerts

Convert the geopolitical uncertainty and sector-specific short reports into actionable alerts to protect capital and capture rotation.

• Horizon 1-5d Signal Grade B
• Why it matters: The Kerrisdale short report on MRAM requires immediate monitoring for technical breakdowns as retail digests the fundamental disconnect.
• Triggers Price drops below $10.00 (or equivalent 20-day moving average).
• Invalidation Reclaims pre-report highs.

• Horizon 1-5d Signal Grade B
• Why it matters: Oil markets are highly sensitive to the disputed Iran deal; any confirmation of failed talks will trigger an immediate crude spike.
• Triggers Crude oil spikes above $85.00.
• Invalidation Crude drops below $75.00.