🧾 Retro — Calls Expiring Today
- DP-2026-02-18-P03 [equities / TSLA]: HIT (+1) — TSLA Start=411.32 End=391.95 Return=-4.709% th=0.000% Next time: keep the thesis, but continue requiring the same confirmation quality before publishing.
- DP-2026-04-10-T01 [equities / SPY]: HIT (+1) — SPY 2026-04-15 range=0.869% th=1.500% (H=700.28 L=694.20 C=699.94) Next time: keep the thesis, but continue requiring the same confirmation quality before publishing.
- DP-2026-04-10-T02 [commodities / USO]: HIT (+1) — USO 2026-04-15 range=2.374% th=1.500% (H=125.24 L=122.33 C=122.59) Next time: keep the thesis, but continue requiring the same confirmation quality before publishing.
Use this scorekeeping to calibrate conviction in the tactical, thesis, and monitoring sections that follow.
Assets of High Interest
Treat these worldview rows as the standing posterior state that should feed the tactical, portfolio, and monitoring sections below.
No AHI worldview snapshots persisted yet.
- Trading Pulse — Tactical
- S&P 500 (SPY) | CALL: BULLISH [Horizon: 1-5d | Signal Grade: B]
- Why it matters: Market breadth is improving, and the index has reclaimed key moving averages following the easing of Iran-US tensions.
- Triggers Sustained hold above 6920; break of recent highs.
- Invalidation Close below 6800; re-emergence of geopolitical risk premiums.
- Bitcoin (BTC) | CALL: BULLISH [Horizon: 1-5d | Signal Grade: B]
- Why it matters: Institutional inflows via ETFs and short-squeeze dynamics are pushing BTC toward the $76k-$80k resistance band.
- Triggers Decisive daily close above $75,000.
- Invalidation Drop below $72,000; failure to hold the 100-day moving average.
- Portfolio / Thesis Pulse — Weeks to Months
- Private Credit / Financials | CALL: NEUTRAL [Horizon: 4-12w | Signal Grade: C]
- Why it matters: While systemic risk is low, credit anxiety and potential losses in private credit could dampen liquidity as earnings season progresses.
- Triggers Widening of credit spreads; bank earnings guidance revisions.
- Invalidation Sustained decline in default rates; Fed signaling aggressive rate cuts.
- Energy (XLE/Oil) | CALL: BEARISH [Horizon: 4-12w | Signal Grade: B]
- Why it matters: Easing geopolitical tensions and potential supply-side normalization are pressuring oil prices, ending the 12-week diesel price rally.
- Triggers Sustained move below $75/bbl; diplomatic progress in Middle East talks.
- Invalidation Escalation in the Strait of Hormuz; supply-chain disruption.
- Crypto / Ethereum Add-On
- Ethereum (ETH) | CALL: RELATIVE (ETH vs BTC) [Horizon: 4-12w | Signal Grade: C]
- Why it matters: The ETH/BTC ratio has bounced from 2026 lows, supported by strong on-chain stablecoin supply growth.
- Triggers Weekly close above 0.035 ETH/BTC.
- Invalidation Failure to hold 0.030; renewed BTC dominance.
- Signal Radar
- Institutional Adoption: Goldman Sachs filing for a Bitcoin Premium Income ETF signals a shift toward manufacturing yield-focused crypto products.
- Regulatory: Virginia’s HB 798 (in-kind crypto custody) and Pakistan’s banking integration for crypto firms indicate a global trend toward formalizing digital asset frameworks.
- Macro: IMF global debt warnings (100% of GDP by 2029) provide a long-term bullish tailwind for non-sovereign assets like Bitcoin.
- Watchlist & Alerts
- Watchlist: STRC (Strategy) for volatility/ATM program updates; NVDA/Broadcom for AI infrastructure momentum; Copper miners (supply deficit play).
- Alert: Monitor $75,000 level for BTC; $6920 for SPX.