🧾 Retro — Calls Expiring Today

• DP-2026-03-03-C01 [crypto / ETH]: HIT (+1) — A=ETH ret=19.807%, B=BTC ret=8.916%, diff=10.891%, th=2.000%, cmp=>= Next time: keep the thesis, but continue requiring the same confirmation quality before publishing.
• DP-2026-04-09-T01 [equities / SPY]: UNRESOLVED — Retro result has not been persisted yet. Next time: verify the reconciliation step completed before publishing the pulse.

Use this scorekeeping to calibrate conviction in the tactical, thesis, and monitoring sections that follow.

Assets of High Interest

Treat these worldview rows as the standing posterior state that should feed the tactical, portfolio, and monitoring sections below.

No AHI worldview snapshots persisted yet.

1. Trading Pulse — Tactical

• Bitcoin (BTC): [Horizon: 1-5d | Signal Grade: B] CALL BULLISH BTC Why it matters: BTC is testing $75k resistance with negative dealer gamma exposure; a breakout above $75.5k triggers a massive short squeeze. Triggers Daily close >$75,500. Invalidation Daily close <$72,000.
• S&P 500 (SPY): [Horizon: 1-5d | Signal Grade: B] CALL NEUTRAL SPY Why it matters: The market is showing surprising resilience to the Strait of Hormuz blockade, but remains rangebound between 6740 and 6800. Triggers Breakout above 6800 or breakdown below 6740. Invalidation Sustained move outside the 6740–6800 range.

2. Portfolio / Thesis Pulse — Weeks to Months

• Energy (XLE/Oil): [Horizon: 4-12w | Signal Grade: B] CALL VOLATILITY UP XLE Why it matters: The US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz creates a high-risk supply environment; energy remains the primary hedge against geopolitical escalation. Triggers Sustained oil prices >$100/bbl. Invalidation Diplomatic breakthrough leading to a formal ceasefire.
• Software/Tech (IGV/SMH): [Horizon: 4-12w | Signal Grade: C] CALL RELATIVE (Software vs. Semis) Why it matters: Software is showing signs of an oversold technical bounce, while semiconductors are overextended and facing potential drawdowns. Triggers Relative strength of IGV vs. SMH. Invalidation Broad market collapse dragging all tech lower.

3. Crypto / Ethereum Add-On

• Kraken (Payward): [Horizon: 4-12w | Signal Grade: B] CALL NEUTRAL Why it matters: Deutsche Börse’s $200M investment provides institutional validation, but the exchange faces ongoing security/extortion headwinds. Triggers Successful closure of the deal in Q2. Invalidation Further material security breaches or regulatory suspension.

4. Signal Radar

• Bank of Japan (BOJ): Dovish stance removes the carry-trade unwind risk for now, supporting risk assets.
• US-Iran Conflict: Market is currently pricing in a "buyable dip" scenario; monitor for any escalation in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Strategy (MSTR/STRC): Record-breaking volume in STRC indicates deep institutional demand; watch for potential exhaustion after the ex-dividend date.

5. Watchlist & Alerts

• Watchlist: BTC ($75k breakout), Oil ($100+), Software (Adobe/Salesforce technical bounce).
• Alerts: If BTC closes >$75.5k, expect accelerated momentum. If SPY closes <$6740, prepare for a gap fill to 6615.