🧾 Retro — Calls Expiring Today

• DP-2026-04-02-T01 [equities / SPY]: HIT (+1) — SPY 2026-04-07 range=1.297% th=1.500% (H=659.61 L=651.06 C=659.22) Next time: keep the thesis, but continue requiring the same confirmation quality before publishing.

Use this scorekeeping to calibrate conviction in the tactical, thesis, and monitoring sections that follow.

Assets of High Interest

Treat these worldview rows as the standing posterior state that should feed the tactical, portfolio, and monitoring sections below.

No AHI worldview snapshots persisted yet.

1. Trading Pulse — Tactical

• Equities (S&P 500): BEARISH

  • [Horizon: 1-5d | Signal Grade: B]
  • Why it matters: The index is testing the 200-day moving average from below with weak breadth and institutional distribution; rallies are being sold into.
  • Triggers Close below 6,300 confirms the downtrend; failure to reclaim the 200-day MA.
  • Invalidation Sustained daily close above the 200-day MA with high volume.

• Oil (Brent Crude): VOLATILITY UP

  • [Horizon: 1-5d | Signal Grade: A]
  • Why it matters: The Strait of Hormuz disruption and Trump’s ultimatum to Iran create a binary outcome for energy prices.
  • Triggers Any escalation in the Strait of Hormuz or rejection of the ceasefire proposal.
  • Invalidation Formal, verified ceasefire agreement.

2. Portfolio / Thesis Pulse — Weeks to Months

• Bitcoin: RELATIVE (vs. Software Stocks)

  • [Horizon: 4-12w | Signal Grade: B]
  • Why it matters: Bitcoin has decoupled from software/SaaS equities (IGV), acting as a macro hedge against geopolitical instability.
  • Triggers Bitcoin holding $68k support while software stocks continue to compress margins due to AI compute costs.
  • Invalidation Correlation returns to >0.8; Bitcoin breaks $65k support.

• Gold: BULLISH

  • [Horizon: 4-12w | Signal Grade: A]
  • Why it matters: Central bank buying and the "soft default" narrative on U.S. debt provide a structural floor for gold despite dollar strength.
  • Triggers Sustained move above $4,100; further escalation in Middle East.
  • Invalidation Significant de-escalation in Iran conflict leading to a sharp drop in safe-haven demand.

3. Crypto / Ethereum Add-On

• Ethereum: BEARISH
  • [Horizon: 1-5d | Signal Grade: B]
  • Why it matters: Ether products are seeing outflows amid regulatory uncertainty (CLARITY Act) and internal Aave governance friction.
  • Triggers Continued outflows from ETPs; failure to hold support levels against Bitcoin.
  • Invalidation Regulatory clarity or reversal of ETP outflows.

4. Signal Radar

• AI Infrastructure (Anthropic/Google/Broadcom): RELATIVE (vs. Bitcoin Miners)
  • [Horizon: 4-12w | Signal Grade: B]
  • Why it matters: Multi-gigawatt compute deals are cannibalizing energy resources previously available to Bitcoin miners, forcing a business model pivot for the latter.
  • Triggers Continued announcements of AI-compute-for-power deals.

5. Watchlist & Alerts

• Watchlist: $68,000 (BTC support), $110/bbl (Brent Crude), $153 (ORCL short level).
• Alert: Monitor 1:00 PM ET presidential address for potential market-moving geopolitical shifts.