🧾 Retro — Calls Expiring Today

• DP-2026-03-09-P04 [cross_asset / MSTR/BTC]: HIT (+1) — A=MSTR ret=-8.104%, B=BTC ret=1.214%, diff=-9.317%, th=5.000%, cmp=<= Next time: keep the thesis, but continue requiring the same confirmation quality before publishing.
• DP-2026-03-17-S01 [politics_geo / VIX (proxy)]: PARTIAL (+0.5) — ^VIX ret=8.046% th=20.000% (vol up) overrideApplied[source=AI_BATCH confidence=0.95 rationale=Replaced VIX (proxy) with the standard Yahoo Finance ticker ^VIX for deterministic volatility tracking.] Next time: tighten timing and invalidation so the expression matches the thesis more closely.
• DP-2026-03-23-T02 [equities / SPY]: FLAT (0) — SPY Start=655.38 End=658.93 Return=0.542% th=650000.000% Next time: wait for a cleaner trigger or a tighter evaluation window before publishing the call.
• DP-2026-04-01-V01 [volatility_derivatives / VIX]: FLAT (0) — VIX ret=-1.508% th=3.000% (vol up) Next time: wait for a cleaner trigger or a tighter evaluation window before publishing the call.

Use this scorekeeping to calibrate conviction in the tactical, thesis, and monitoring sections that follow.

Assets of High Interest

Treat these worldview rows as the standing posterior state that should feed the tactical, portfolio, and monitoring sections below.

No AHI worldview snapshots persisted yet.

1. Trading Pulse — Tactical

• Equities (S&P 500): BEARISH Horizon 1-5d Signal Grade B Why it matters: The recent rally is a "dead-cat bounce" failing at the 200-day moving average; weak market internals (MFBR at 35%) suggest institutional distribution. Triggers Break below 6,300 support; failure to hold current levels on news of ceasefire. Invalidation Sustained close above the 200-day moving average with volume expansion.
• Crude Oil: VOLATILITY UP Horizon 1-2d Signal Grade A Why it matters: Prices are surging toward $111+ due to the Iran conflict; physical deliverability constraints are now outweighing price-based risk models. Triggers Any confirmation of further strikes on energy infrastructure or failure of ceasefire talks. Invalidation Formal, verified ceasefire agreement with binding international oversight.

2. Portfolio / Thesis Pulse — Weeks to Months

• Bitcoin: RELATIVE (vs. Risk Assets) Horizon 4-12w Signal Grade B Why it matters: Bitcoin is attempting to front-run central bank policy, but remains vulnerable to "late-cycle" liquidity drains and quantum-security headlines. Triggers Reclaim of $75,000 (bullish) or breach of $60,000 (bearish). Invalidation A sustained break above $81,200 would force a structural re-evaluation of the bear case.
• Logistics/Freight: BULLISH Horizon 1-2 quarters Signal Grade B Why it matters: Packaging paper shipments and pallet PPI are showing a structural turnaround, signaling an industrial recovery despite broader macro headwinds. Triggers Continued rise in rail carload performance and flatbed tender rejection rates. Invalidation Two consecutive months of declining packaging paper shipments or a spike in diesel costs exceeding 15%.

3. Crypto / Ethereum Add-On

• Crypto Market: BEARISH Horizon 1-4w Signal Grade B Why it matters: Onchain perp DEX volumes have fallen for five consecutive months, indicating a significant reduction in speculative leverage. Triggers Sustained drop in daily trading volume below $8B. Invalidation A surge in open interest coupled with a breakout in BTC price above $73,000.

4. Signal Radar

• Geopolitical: Monitor the "Islamabad Accord" ceasefire reports; current Polymarket odds (30%) suggest high skepticism.
• Regulatory: Watch for further fallout from the Bitchat app removal in China; signals a hardening stance on decentralized communication tools.
• Macro: Watch CPI/PCE data releases this week; expectations for 2026 rate cuts are near zero, creating a "no-pivot" risk environment.

5. Watchlist & Alerts

• Watchlist: Ryder (R) - upgraded by Moody's; Energy/Industrials (Defensive rotation).
• Alert: If Brent Crude hits $120, expect a sharp equity capitulation (per Piper Sandler/Craig Johnson).