🧾 Retro — Calls Expiring Today

• DP-2026-03-05-C01 [crypto / ETH]: MISS (-1) — A=ETH ret=-0.976%, B=BTC ret=-5.439%, diff=4.463%, th=2.000%, cmp=>= Next time: re-check the core driver and demand stronger confirming evidence before taking the trade.
• DP-2026-03-26-T02 [commodities / USO]: HIT (+1) — Return expression rule: USO ret=17.619% cmp=>= th=5.000% outcome=HIT Next time: keep the thesis, but continue requiring the same confirmation quality before publishing.

Use this scorekeeping to calibrate conviction in the tactical, thesis, and monitoring sections that follow.

Assets of High Interest

Treat these worldview rows as the standing posterior state that should feed the tactical, portfolio, and monitoring sections below.

No AHI worldview snapshots persisted yet.

1. Trading Pulse — Tactical

• Equities (SPY/QQQ): BEARISH

  • [Horizon: 1-5d | Signal Grade: A]
  • Why it matters: Markets are rejecting resistance levels while geopolitical risk (Iran/Oil) remains elevated; volume is thin, suggesting lack of conviction in the recent bounce.
  • Triggers Close below 20-day moving average; sustained oil price >$105/bbl.
  • Invalidation Decisive breakout above 200-day moving average on high volume.

• Commodities (Oil): VOLATILITY UP

  • [Horizon: 1-2d | Signal Grade: A]
  • Why it matters: Geopolitical instability in the Middle East and potential supply shocks are driving erratic price action, creating a "slot machine" market environment.
  • Triggers Any further escalation in the Strait of Hormuz; breach of $110/bbl.
  • Invalidation Formal de-escalation agreement or ceasefire announcement.

2. Portfolio / Thesis Pulse — Weeks to Months

• Equities (Dividend Aristocrats): RELATIVE (vs Tech)

  • [Horizon: 4-12w | Signal Grade: B]
  • Why it matters: Capital is rotating into defensive, income-generating assets as investors lose faith in speculative growth and AI-sector profitability.
  • Triggers Continued outperformance of Dividend Aristocrats Index vs S&P 500.
  • Invalidation Sharp reversal in Treasury yields or unexpected dovish pivot from the Fed.

• Macro (US Dollar): BULLISH

  • [Horizon: 4-12w | Signal Grade: B]
  • Why it matters: Strengthening dollar acts as a headwind for risk assets; geopolitical uncertainty and potential NATO strain favor USD as a flight-to-safety vehicle.
  • Triggers DXY breakout toward 104 level.
  • Invalidation Sustained close below 102.5.

3. Crypto / Ethereum Add-On

• Crypto (BTC/ETH): BEARISH
  • [Horizon: 1-3m | Signal Grade: B]
  • Why it matters: Market is in a "time pain" redistribution phase; corporate treasury selling (Riot, MARA, Genius Group) and lack of euphoric retail demand suggest a lower floor is needed.
  • Triggers Failure to hold $60k support; negative perpetual funding rates persisting.
  • Invalidation Sustained move above $72k with high spot volume.

4. Signal Radar

• Regulatory/Policy: Monitor the 60-day comment period for the GENIUS Act; this is the primary benchmark for future stablecoin oversight.
• Logistics/Supply Chain: Watch for increased roadside enforcement in Indiana (CDL revocations) and potential Section 232 investigations into Mexican heavy machinery imports.
• Corporate: Monitor "AI-subprime" exposure; companies relying on massive subsidies to mask operational costs are at high risk of liquidity crunches.

5. Watchlist & Alerts

• Watchlist:
  • Equities: NKE (oversold/guidance risk), INTC (buyback news/consolidation).
  • Crypto: BTC (Fibonacci target $51k), SOL (technical breakdown below Ichimoku cloud).
  • Commodities: Oil (watching $100-$110 range).
• Alerts:
  • Set alert for DXY at 104.00.
  • Set alert for Oil at $110.00.
  • Set alert for BTC at $58,000 (breakdown confirmation).