🧾 Retro — Calls Expiring Today
- DP-2026-03-25-T01 [equities / SPY]: HIT (+1) — SPY 2026-03-30 range=1.755% th=6000.000% (H=640.37 L=629.28 C=631.97) Next time: keep the thesis, but continue requiring the same confirmation quality before publishing.
- DP-2026-03-28-T01 [equities / SPY/QQQ]: HIT (+1) — ^GSPC 2026-03-30 range=1.740% th=6200.000% (H=6427.31 L=6316.91 C=6343.72) overrideApplied[source=AI_BATCH confidence=0.95 rationale=Mapped SPY/QQQ to ^GSPC (S&P 500 Index) to match the rule 'S&P 500 below 6200' and set ceiling parameter.] Next time: keep the thesis, but continue requiring the same confirmation quality before publishing.
Use this scorekeeping to calibrate conviction in the tactical, thesis, and monitoring sections that follow.
Assets of High Interest
Treat these worldview rows as the standing posterior state that should feed the tactical, portfolio, and monitoring sections below.
No AHI worldview snapshots persisted yet.
- Trading Pulse — Tactical
- S&P 500 (SPX) Bounce
- [Horizon: 1-5d | Signal Grade: B]
- CALL BULLISH SPY (Tactical Bounce)
- Why it matters: The market is deeply oversold (RSI/MACD) and sentiment is at extreme fear (9.6/100), setting the stage for a reflexive short-covering rally.
- Triggers Sustained move above 6,130; VIX reversal below 20.
- Invalidation Close below 6,000; further escalation in Iran conflict.
- Portfolio / Thesis Pulse — Weeks to Months
- Energy & Commodities (Oil/Uranium)
- [Horizon: 4-12w | Signal Grade: A]
- CALL BULLISH USO
- Why it matters: Geopolitical conflict in the Strait of Hormuz and structural supply deficits are creating a "war premium" that central banks cannot suppress via rate policy.
- Triggers Brent crude holding above $115; further infrastructure disruptions in the Middle East.
- Invalidation Diplomatic ceasefire; significant drop in global energy demand.
- Crypto / Ethereum Add-On
- Bitcoin (BTC) & Crypto Equities
- [Horizon: 1-3m | Signal Grade: B]
- CALL RELATIVE BTC (BTC vs. Crypto Stocks)
- Why it matters: Crypto stocks (COIN, HOOD) are down ~60% and represent a "buy the dip" opportunity for long-term holders, while BTC remains trapped in a $65k-$75k range due to macro/geopolitical headwinds.
- Triggers BTC breakout above $71k; Q1 earnings showing resilience in stablecoin/derivative revenue.
- Invalidation BTC breakdown below $65k support; further regulatory enforcement.
- Signal Radar
- Bond Yields (10Y Treasury)
- [Horizon: 1-3m | Signal Grade: B]
- CALL VOLATILITY UP / YIELDS UP
- Why it matters: Inflationary pressures from energy shocks and weak Treasury demand are forcing a repricing of the "higher for longer" narrative.
- Triggers 10Y yield breaking above recent highs; persistent inflation data.
- Invalidation Deflationary shock or recessionary data forcing a Fed pivot.
- Watchlist & Alerts
- Watchlist:
- NuScale Power (SMR): Bullish setup on dual trendline hit.
- Microsoft (MSFT): Oversold technical bounce target 384-412.
- Oracle (ORCL): Short entry at 149.23 if market pushes higher.
- Alerts:
- Monitor Iran/US diplomatic headlines; any "ceasefire" news is a primary catalyst for a market-wide trend shift.