🧾 Retro — Calls Expiring Today

• DP-2026-03-23-S01 [commodities / GLD]: MISS (-1) — GLD Start=404.04 End=414.70 Return=2.638% th=1.500% Next time: re-check the core driver and demand stronger confirming evidence before taking the trade.
• DP-2026-03-23-S02 [equities / SPY volatility]: FLAT (0) — SPY volatility ret=-2.317% th=3.000% (vol up) Next time: wait for a cleaner trigger or a tighter evaluation window before publishing the call.
• DP-2026-03-23-T01 [crypto / BTC]: HIT (+1) — BTC 2026-03-28 range=0.841% th=1.500% (H=66516.27 L=65958.55 C=66341.87) Next time: keep the thesis, but continue requiring the same confirmation quality before publishing.
• DP-2026-03-18-T02 [crypto / ETH]: HIT (+1) — ETH 2026-03-28 range=1.129% th=1.500% (H=2005.88 L=1983.35 C=1996.20) Next time: keep the thesis, but continue requiring the same confirmation quality before publishing.

Use this scorekeeping to calibrate conviction in the tactical, thesis, and monitoring sections that follow.

Assets of High Interest

Treat these worldview rows as the standing posterior state that should feed the tactical, portfolio, and monitoring sections below.

No AHI worldview snapshots persisted yet.

1. Trading Pulse — Tactical

• Equities (S&P 500/Nasdaq): BEARISH
  • [Horizon: 1-2d | Signal Grade: A]
  • Why it matters: The Nasdaq has entered correction territory (>10% off highs) and the S&P 500 has broken key support levels; institutional sentiment is shifting toward risk-off as the April 6 Iran-related deadline approaches.
  • Triggers A gap lower on Monday or failure to reclaim the 6200 level on the S&P 500.
  • Invalidation A decisive, high-volume breakout above the 50-day moving average.

2. Portfolio / Thesis Pulse — Weeks to Months

• Energy (Oil/XLE): VOLATILITY UP

  • [Horizon: 4-12w | Signal Grade: A]
  • Why it matters: The "war premium" is structurally embedded due to the Strait of Hormuz blockade and potential for physical supply shortages in Asia; energy is the only sector showing relative strength.
  • Triggers Sustained oil prices above $100/bbl; further escalation in the Persian Gulf.
  • Invalidation A diplomatic breakthrough or ceasefire that reopens the Strait of Hormuz.

• Bitcoin: BEARISH

  • [Horizon: 4-12w | Signal Grade: B]
  • Why it matters: Retail capitulation is underway, and the lack of institutional buying (evidenced by ETF outflows) leaves the asset vulnerable to a retest of the $60k floor.
  • Triggers A daily close below $60,000.
  • Invalidation A return to consistent net inflows in spot ETFs and a reclaim of the $72,000 level.

3. Crypto / Ethereum Add-On

• Crypto Infrastructure (Bitmain/Mining): BEARISH
  • [Horizon: 4-12w | Signal Grade: B]
  • Why it matters: Miners are liquidating BTC to fund pivots into AI/HPC infrastructure to survive high production costs (~$80k/BTC), creating structural sell pressure.
  • Triggers Continued hashrate decline and further treasury liquidations.
  • Invalidation Bitcoin price recovery to >$100k, restoring mining margins.

4. Signal Radar

• Gold: RELATIVE (vs Equities)
  • [Horizon: 4-12w | Signal Grade: B]
  • Why it matters: While gold is currently under pressure from high real yields, it remains the primary hedge against the "fiat death spiral" narrative and geopolitical instability.
  • Triggers A move above $2,200/oz; failure of the 6200 support level in the S&P 500.
  • Invalidation A sharp drop below $2,000/oz.

5. Watchlist & Alerts

• Watchlist: XLE (Energy), Gold (GLD), Bitcoin (BTC).
• Alerts: Monitor April 6 (Iran strike deadline); watch for 10-year Treasury yield spikes above 4.5%.