🧾 Retro — Calls Expiring Today

• DP-2026-03-25-C01 [crypto / BTC]: FLAT (0) — BTC ret=-7.781% th=75000.000% (vol up) Next time: wait for a cleaner trigger or a tighter evaluation window before publishing the call.
• DP-2026-03-22-T01 [equities / SPY]: PARTIAL (+0.5) — SPY Start=648.57 End=640.20 Return=-1.291% th=650000.000% Next time: tighten timing and invalidation so the expression matches the thesis more closely.
• DP-2026-03-07-T04 [equities / XHB]: HIT (+1) — XHB return-band ret=-8.574% start=105.5500 end=96.5000 Next time: keep the thesis, but continue requiring the same confirmation quality before publishing.
• DP-2026-03-17-T02 [crypto / ETH]: MISS (-1) — ETH 2026-03-27 range=5.170% th=1.500% (H=2074.57 L=1972.03 C=1983.05) Next time: re-check the core driver and demand stronger confirming evidence before taking the trade.
• DP-2026-03-17-T03 [crypto / AAVE (relative vs BTC/ETH)]: MISS (-1) — A=AAVE ret=-18.908%, B=BTC ret=-11.460%, diff=-7.448%, th=5.000%, cmp=>= Next time: re-check the core driver and demand stronger confirming evidence before taking the trade.
• DP-2026-03-22-T02 [commodities / USO]: HIT (+1) — USO close-vs-publish start=121.4300 bestRet=0.651% th=0.000% window=2026-03-22..2026-03-27 Next time: keep the thesis, but continue requiring the same confirmation quality before publishing.
• DP-2026-03-22-W01 [bonds / TLT]: MISS (-1) — TLT Start=85.83 End=85.99 Return=0.186% th=0.000% Next time: re-check the core driver and demand stronger confirming evidence before taking the trade.

Use this scorekeeping to calibrate conviction in the tactical, thesis, and monitoring sections that follow.

Assets of High Interest

Treat these worldview rows as the standing posterior state that should feed the tactical, portfolio, and monitoring sections below.

No AHI worldview snapshots persisted yet.

1. Trading Pulse — Tactical

• Equities (SPY/QQQ): BEARISH [Horizon: 1-5d | Signal Grade: A]
  • Why it matters: The S&P 500 has broken below critical support ($641.85), and internal breadth is deteriorating as the "Mag 7" leadership falters.
  • Triggers A daily close below $644.74 confirms the breakdown; watch for a test of $620.
  • Invalidation A decisive recapture of the 200-day moving average on high volume.
• Oil (USO): VOLATILITY UP [Horizon: 1-2d | Signal Grade: B]
  • Why it matters: Escalating conflict in the Strait of Hormuz and potential infrastructure strikes create a supply-shock environment.
  • Triggers A sustained break above $98.11 resistance.
  • Invalidation A formal, verified de-escalation agreement between the U.S. and Iran.

2. Portfolio / Thesis Pulse — Weeks to Months

• Gold (GLD): BEARISH [Horizon: 4-12w | Signal Grade: B]
  • Why it matters: Despite geopolitical noise, gold is failing to act as a safe haven, pressured by rising Treasury yields and profit-taking.
  • Triggers Failure to hold current levels; downside target of $3,400–$3,500.
  • Invalidation A sharp reversal in 10-year Treasury yields (dropping below 4.0%).
• Bitcoin (BTC): NEUTRAL/BEARISH [Horizon: 4-12w | Signal Grade: B]
  • Why it matters: Retail capitulation and institutional ETF outflows are cooling the momentum that defined early 2026.
  • Triggers A break below $66,000 support triggers a move toward $60,000.
  • Invalidation Sustained institutional accumulation (ETF inflows) returning to February levels.

3. Crypto / Ethereum Add-On

• Ethereum (ETH): RELATIVE (vs BTC) [Horizon: 4-12w | Signal Grade: C]
  • Why it matters: Institutional interest in tokenization (Canton Network, Ondo) provides a relative floor for ETH-linked assets despite broader crypto weakness.
  • Triggers Outperformance of ETH/BTC pair on volume.
  • Invalidation A broader market liquidity event forcing liquidation of all digital assets.

4. Signal Radar

• Macro: U.S. 10-year Treasury yield nearing 4.5% is the primary headwind for all risk assets.
• Policy: Monitor April 6th deadline for U.S.-Iran strike threats; this is the binary event for global energy and equity markets.
• Corporate: Watch for further debt-restructuring announcements from crypto-miners (e.g., MARA) as they pivot to AI/HPC infrastructure.

5. Watchlist & Alerts

• Watchlist: XLE (Energy) for continued strength; MSFT/ORCL for potential oversold bounces.
• Alerts: Set alerts for SPY at $644 (breakdown confirmation) and Oil at $98 (breakout).