🧾 Retro — Calls Expiring Today
- DP-2026-03-11-C01 [crypto / BTC/ETH]: MISS (-1) — A=BTC ret=1.597%, B=ETH ret=5.920%, diff=-4.324%, th=2.000%, cmp=>= Next time: re-check the core driver and demand stronger confirming evidence before taking the trade.
- DP-2026-03-11-S01 [equities / QQQ]: FLAT (0) — QQQ close-vs-publish start=607.6900 bestRet=0.000% th=2.000% window=2026-03-11..2026-03-25 Next time: wait for a cleaner trigger or a tighter evaluation window before publishing the call.
- DP-2026-03-18-T03 [commodities / USO/WTI]: MISS (-1) — CL=F 2026-03-25 range=4.612% th=1.500% (H=114.25 L=109.02 C=113.39) overrideApplied[source=AI_BATCH confidence=0.95 rationale=Mapped USO/WTI to CL=F (WTI Crude futures) and standardized range parameters to check ceiling at 100.] Next time: re-check the core driver and demand stronger confirming evidence before taking the trade.
- DP-2026-03-18-T04 [equities / SPY/QQQ]: PARTIAL (+0.5) — SPY Start=661.43 End=656.82 Return=-0.697% th=1.000% overrideApplied[source=AI_BATCH confidence=0.95 rationale=Extracted SPY from SPY/QQQ pair to evaluate the specific return threshold rule.] Next time: tighten timing and invalidation so the expression matches the thesis more closely.
Use this scorekeeping to calibrate conviction in the tactical, thesis, and monitoring sections that follow.
Assets of High Interest
Treat these worldview rows as the standing posterior state that should feed the tactical, portfolio, and monitoring sections below.
No AHI worldview snapshots persisted yet.
- Trading Pulse — Tactical
- CALL BULLISH SPY (S&P 500 / Risk Assets)
- Horizon 1-5d Signal Grade B
- Why it matters: Markets are pricing in a potential ceasefire in the Iran conflict following the U.S. 15-point peace plan, which is acting as a catalyst for a "risk-on" rotation.
- Triggers Sustained move above 6,000 on the S&P 500; Brent crude holding below $100/bbl.
- Invalidation Re-escalation of hostilities or failure of ceasefire talks, causing a spike in oil and a flight to liquidity.
- Portfolio / Thesis Pulse — Weeks to Months
- CALL RELATIVE ETH (Ethereum vs. Bitcoin)
- Horizon 4-12w Signal Grade B
- Why it matters: Institutional infrastructure (JPMorgan, Fidelity, BlackRock) is increasingly utilizing Ethereum for tokenization and settlement, creating a fundamental demand floor that Bitcoin currently lacks in the institutional "rails" space.
- Triggers Continued growth in Ethereum-based tokenization platforms (e.g., Bitpanda Vision Chain, Ripple/RLUSD pilots).
- Invalidation Regulatory crackdown on Ethereum-based DeFi or a significant shift in institutional preference toward Bitcoin-only treasury models.
- Crypto / Ethereum Add-On
- CALL VOLATILITY UP BTC (Bitcoin Options)
- Horizon 1-2d Signal Grade A
- Why it matters: A massive $14.16B options expiry this Friday on Deribit creates a "max pain" gravitational pull toward $75,000, likely driving short-term price volatility as market makers hedge.
- Triggers Open interest spikes near $75k; BTC price testing $72k resistance.
- Invalidation Price remains range-bound between $70k-$72k through Friday, indicating low delta-hedging activity.
- Signal Radar
- CALL BEARISH XLE (Energy Equities)
- Horizon 1-3m Signal Grade B
- Why it matters: Geopolitical risk premiums are fading as peace talks progress; historical data suggests energy stocks overprice "worst-case" supply scenarios and are vulnerable to mean reversion.
- Triggers Brent crude falling below $95/bbl; normalization of shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Invalidation A breakdown in negotiations leading to a sustained supply shock.
- Watchlist & Alerts
- WATCH: Robinhood (HOOD) - $1.5B buyback program provides a floor, but monitor for broader tech/software weakness.
- WATCH: Real Estate - Monitor for signs of "forced" selling if anti-institutional investor legislation gains traction.
- ALERT: Watch for "max pain" volatility in BTC as Friday's $14B options expiry approaches.