🧾 Retro — Calls Expiring Today

• DP-2026-03-08-S01 [commodities / USO]: MISS (-1) — USO realizedVolRatio=0.7280 th=1.5000 current=0.0272 prior=0.0374 Next time: re-check the core driver and demand stronger confirming evidence before taking the trade.
• DP-2026-03-17-T01 [crypto / BTC]: PARTIAL (+0.5) — BTC 2026-03-22 range=1.805% th=1.500% (H=69454.24 L=68211.08 C=68884.65) Next time: tighten timing and invalidation so the expression matches the thesis more closely.
• DP-2026-03-17-T04 [equities / SPY]: HIT (+1) — SPY Start=670.79 End=648.57 Return=-3.313% th=2.000% Next time: keep the thesis, but continue requiring the same confirmation quality before publishing.

Use this scorekeeping to calibrate conviction in the tactical, thesis, and monitoring sections that follow.

Assets of High Interest

Treat these worldview rows as the standing posterior state that should feed the tactical, portfolio, and monitoring sections below.

No AHI worldview snapshots persisted yet.

1. Trading Pulse — Tactical

• DP-2026-03-22-T01 | SPY CALL BEARISH SPY Horizon 1-5d Signal Grade A Why it matters: Post-OPEX support is gone just as oil/geopolitical risk and higher yields lean against a damaged equity tape. Base case is that rallies fail until crude and war headlines cool materially. Triggers Verification only: SPY fails to reclaim its broken medium-term trend zone while breadth stays defensive and oil holds weekend strength. Invalidation Verification only: fast Gulf de-escalation plus a two-session SPY reclaim of lost trend support with cyclical breadth improving.
• DP-2026-03-22-T02 | USO CALL BULLISH USO Horizon 1-5d Signal Grade A Why it matters: The strongest cross-source edge is persistent energy risk premium from Hormuz disruption, crack-spread stress, and underowned energy positioning. Triggers Verification only: crude stays above post-shock support and no credible reopening or de-escalation emerges. Invalidation Verification only: a clear Gulf off-ramp plus a multi-session crude reversal through the recent relief zone.

2. Portfolio / Thesis Pulse — Weeks to Months

• DP-2026-03-22-P01 | DBC CALL BULLISH DBC Horizon 4-12w Signal Grade B Why it matters: Commodity leadership looks broader than a one-day war spike. Energy scarcity and real-asset repricing can persist even if the first panic fades. Triggers Verification only: DBC holds pullbacks while energy and industrial-scarcity narratives stay live. Invalidation Verification only: fast normalization in oil plus a broader commodity breakdown back below recent breakout support.
• DP-2026-03-22-P02 | XHB CALL BEARISH XHB Horizon 4-12w Signal Grade B Why it matters: Inventory has normalized in many metros, incentives are back, and accidental-landlord pressure says housing pricing power is weaker than headline demand suggests. Triggers More builder incentives, more inventory-heavy metro weakness, and verification only: XHB fails to lead even when the broad market bounces. Invalidation Mortgage-rate relief plus clear volume resilience without deeper pricing concessions.

3. Crypto / Ethereum Add-On

• DP-2026-03-22-C01 | BTC over ETH CALL RELATIVE BTC/ETH (BTC vs ETH) Horizon 4-12w Signal Grade B Why it matters: Today's crypto evidence is still macro-risk-heavy. BTC keeps the cleaner liquidity and institutional narrative while ETH still has a structural "prove it" burden. Triggers Verification only: BTC dominance stays firm and ETH/BTC fails to turn higher on risk-on attempts. Invalidation Ethereum regains relative momentum with clearer adoption and broader alt participation.

4. Signal Radar

• DP-2026-03-22-S01 | USO CALL VOLATILITY UP USO Horizon 1-14d Signal Grade B Why it matters: Even if oil pauses, the setup still favors violent repricing rather than calm equilibrium because shipping, insurance, and infrastructure headlines can change the tape quickly. Triggers New Hormuz or Kharg escalation, repeated large intraday crude reversals, or jet-fuel and insurance stress headlines. Invalidation Verified reopening or de-escalation and several sessions of compressed daily oil ranges.

5. Watchlist & Alerts

• DP-2026-03-22-W01 | TLT CALL BEARISH TLT Horizon 1-5d Signal Grade C Why it matters: The tape is still pricing sticky inflation through oil more than an immediate growth scare, so long duration remains vulnerable until that balance flips. Triggers Verification only: 10Y yields stay elevated and TLT fails to reclaim breakdown support while crude remains firm. Invalidation Oil shock fades quickly or growth data deteriorates enough to restart a duration bid.