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Daily market pulse notes from CF SocialPulse.

Mar 13, 2026

Daily Pulse - 2026-03-13

Oil-shock and logistics headlines are tightening financial conditions into an already damaged tape, while expectations sentiment has softened. Base case is that short-covering p...

🧾 Retro — Calls Expiring Today

  • DP-2026-02-27-C02 [crypto / BTC/ETH]: MISS (-1) — A=BTC ret=11.876%, B=ETH ret=14.434%, diff=-2.558%, th=2.000%, cmp=>= Next time: re-check the core driver and demand stronger confirming evidence before taking the trade.
  • DP-2026-02-27-T02 [equities / QQQ/IWM]: HIT (+1) — A=QQQ ret=-1.159%, B=IWM ret=-5.669%, diff=4.510%, th=1.000%, cmp=>= Next time: keep the thesis, but continue requiring the same confirmation quality before publishing.
  • DP-2026-03-06-T01 [equities / SPY]: HIT (+1) — SPY close_below level=671.4000 minClose=666.0600 maxClose=682.1200 window=2026-03-06..2026-03-13 Next time: keep the thesis, but continue requiring the same confirmation quality before publishing.
  • DP-2026-03-06-T02 [equities / QQQ]: MISS (-1) — QQQ atrRatio=0.9652 cmp=> th=1.1000 shortAtr=0.0149 longAtr=0.0154 Next time: re-check the core driver and demand stronger confirming evidence before taking the trade.
  • DP-2026-03-07-T01 [equities / SPY]: FLAT (0) — SPY return-band ret=-0.587% start=672.3800 end=668.4300 Next time: wait for a cleaner trigger or a tighter evaluation window before publishing the call.
  • DP-2026-03-08-T01 [cross_asset / USO/XLE]: HIT (+1) — A=XLE ret=1.998%, B=SPY ret=-0.587%, diff=2.585%, th=2.000%, cmp=> Next time: keep the thesis, but continue requiring the same confirmation quality before publishing.
  • DP-2026-03-08-T02 [equities / SPY]: MISS (-1) — Return expression rule: SPY ret=-0.587% cmp=<= th=-2.000% outcome=HIT Next time: re-check the core driver and demand stronger confirming evidence before taking the trade.

Use this scorekeeping to calibrate conviction in the tactical, thesis, and monitoring sections that follow.

Assets of High Interest

Treat these worldview rows as the standing posterior state that should feed the tactical, portfolio, and monitoring sections below.

No AHI worldview snapshots persisted yet.

  1. Trading Pulse — Tactical
  • DP-2026-03-13-T01 | SPY CALL BEARISH SPY Horizon 1-5d Signal Grade B Why it matters: Oil-shock and logistics headlines are tightening financial conditions into an already damaged tape, while expectations sentiment has softened. Base case is that short-covering pops remain sellable until the energy shock cools. Triggers Continued Hormuz/logistics disruption headlines; verification only: SPY fails to reclaim this week's short-term resistance and breadth stays defensive. Invalidation Credible de-escalation plus verification only: SPY regains lost short-term trend levels for two consecutive sessions with cyclical breadth improving.
  • DP-2026-03-13-T02 | XLE over SPY CALL RELATIVE XLE/SPY (XLE vs SPY) Horizon 1-5d Signal Grade A Why it matters: Freight and macro evidence both point to a real energy supply constraint while the broad tape struggles with higher oil and yields. The clean near-term expression is energy leadership over index beta. Triggers Disruption headlines persist; verification only: XLE continues to hold breakout behavior while SPY lags even on green index days. Invalidation Sudden de-escalation and a sharp multi-session reversal in oil that lifts broad cyclicals faster than energy.
  1. Portfolio / Thesis Pulse — Weeks to Months
  • DP-2026-03-13-P01 | DBC CALL BULLISH DBC Horizon 4-12w Signal Grade B Why it matters: Commodity leadership looks broader than a one-off war spike. The macro evidence argues that oil, gold, and the broader commodity complex are participating in the same reflationary turn, with geopolitics acting as an accelerant rather than the only cause. Triggers Broad commodity leadership persists after the current headline burst; verification only: DBC holds its recent breakout zone on pullbacks. Invalidation The oil shock fades quickly and the broader commodity basket loses relative strength versus bonds and cash for multiple weeks.
  • DP-2026-03-13-P02 | XHB CALL BEARISH XHB Horizon 4-12w Signal Grade B Why it matters: Housing affordability is still badly stretched even after modest improvement, and resale turnover remains constrained. If financing costs stay sticky while energy squeezes consumers, housing-linked cyclicals remain vulnerable. Triggers Weak turnover and builder-margin pressure continue; verification only: XHB fails to outperform on broad-market rebound attempts. Invalidation Mortgage sensitivity improves materially and builders start beating the tape on volume and margin data.
  1. Crypto / Ethereum Add-On
  • DP-2026-03-13-C01 | BTC over ETH CALL RELATIVE BTC/ETH (BTC vs ETH) Horizon 4-12w Signal Grade B Why it matters: Risk-off macro and security/event stress argue for staying higher in the crypto quality and liquidity stack. Base case is that BTC absorbs macro turbulence better than ETH and the broader alt complex over the next several weeks. Triggers Bitcoin stays resilient while alt participation remains narrow; verification only: BTC dominance trend holds and ETH fails to reclaim relative leadership. Invalidation Broad alt breadth improves with a stable security and regulatory tone, and ETH retakes relative momentum.
  1. Signal Radar
  • DP-2026-03-13-S01 | QQQ CALL VOLATILITY UP QQQ Horizon 1-5d Signal Grade B Why it matters: Near-term equity views are split between tactical bounce calls and deeper-damage warnings, which is a recipe for wider ranges rather than a smooth trend. Tech remains the levered expression of that disagreement. Triggers Failed intraday rallies and news-sensitive reversal days continue; verification only: daily QQQ ranges stay expanded versus the prior week. Invalidation QQQ compresses ranges for several sessions and clears overhead resistance with improving breadth.
  1. Watchlist & Alerts
  • DP-2026-03-13-W01 | XLP over XLY CALL RELATIVE XLP/XLY (XLP vs XLY) Horizon 1-5d Signal Grade B Why it matters: The live tape is rewarding defensives while affordability stress and energy costs threaten the consumer-margin story. If the macro shock bleeds into spending expectations, staples should keep leading discretionary. Triggers Defensive sectors keep leading on mixed index days; verification only: XLP/XLY relative trend turns higher. Invalidation Oil retraces, sentiment stabilizes, and discretionary regains leadership on rising breadth.