🧾 Retro — Calls Expiring Today

• DP-2026-03-03-T02 [volatility_derivatives / VIX]: HIT (+1) — VIX ret=17.028% th=3.000% (vol up) Next time: keep the thesis, but continue requiring the same confirmation quality before publishing.
• DP-2026-02-20-W01 [equities / TSLA]: HIT (+1) — Return expression rule: TSLA ret=-3.664% cmp=<= th=-3.000% outcome=HIT Next time: keep the thesis, but continue requiring the same confirmation quality before publishing.

Use this scorekeeping to calibrate conviction in the tactical, thesis, and monitoring sections that follow.

Assets of High Interest

Treat these worldview rows as the standing posterior state that should feed the tactical, portfolio, and monitoring sections below.

No AHI worldview snapshots persisted yet.

1. Trading Pulse — Tactical

• CALL BEARISH SPY Horizon 1-5d Signal Grade B Why it matters: Geopolitical risk (Iran/Hormuz narratives) is colliding with higher oil and pre-jobs-data defensiveness. Equity leadership is narrowing while sentiment remains fragile. Triggers SPY loses 671.40 equivalent support; WTI sustains above recent breakout zone. Invalidation SPY reclaims and holds above 693.26 with improving breadth.
• CALL VOLATILITY UP QQQ Horizon 1-5d Signal Grade B Why it matters: Mixed tech tape and elevated options positioning imply larger intraday swings even without a clear directional trend. Triggers QQQ rejects 616.5 resistance and prints lower highs; VIX trend remains bid. Invalidation QQQ closes above resistance with follow-through and declining realized volatility.

2. Portfolio / Thesis Pulse — Weeks to Months

• CALL BULLISH TLT Horizon 4-12w Signal Grade B Why it matters: Multiple macro voices expect growth drag later in 2026 with fading fiscal impulse, favoring duration if disinflation resumes. Triggers Softening labor data trend and cooling core inflation prints. Invalidation Re-acceleration in core inflation and sustained upside in long-end yields.
• CALL RELATIVE XLE (XLE vs broad cyclicals) Horizon 2-8w Signal Grade B Why it matters: Energy is currently supported by geopolitical premium, while broader cyclicals are more exposed to demand slowdown risk. Triggers Crude remains elevated and shipping/supply disruptions intensify. Invalidation Clear de-escalation in Middle East conflict and crude retrace below recent breakout region.

3. Crypto / Ethereum Add-On (ONLY if material)

• CALL VOLATILITY DOWN BTC (BTC after event risk) Horizon 1-2w Signal Grade C Why it matters: BTC has pulled back from 74k toward 70k with cautious derivatives positioning and ETF outflows, but large exchange outflow events suggest underlying spot demand pockets. Triggers BTC stabilizes above 70k after jobs-data reaction and funding normalizes. Invalidation Sustained break below 68k with persistent ETF outflows.
• CALL BULLISH ETH (ETH ecosystem activity, not price beta) Horizon 4-12w Signal Grade C Why it matters: Ongoing institutional/regulatory infrastructure news (tokenized bond pilots, app-layer experimentation emphasis) supports medium-term ecosystem adoption optionality. Triggers Continued institutional pilots and no major adverse ETH-specific regulation. Invalidation Material execution delays or adverse policy/regulatory shocks.

4. Signal Radar

• Macro/geopolitics: Iran-related Strait of Hormuz disruption risk remains the top cross-asset volatility catalyst.
• Rates/inflation: Oil shock headlines are inflationary at the margin, but medium-horizon growth slowdown arguments are building.
• Crypto flows: Spot BTC ETF outflows are a near-term headwind; isolated large on-chain outflows complicate the bearish narrative.
• Housing/real economy: Inventory growth is decelerating; refi activity is rebounding from deep troughs, but broad demand remains rate-sensitive.

5. Watchlist & Alerts

• Equities: SPY 671.4 / 693.3, QQQ 601.5 / 616.5.
• Rates: US10Y around 4.2% narrative threshold for risk-asset pressure.
• Energy: WTI behavior around recent geopolitical premium zone.
• Crypto: BTC 68k downside risk line, 74k reclaim line; monitor ETF flow trend inflection.