🧾 Retro — Calls Expiring Today

• DP-2026-02-25-C01 [crypto / BTC]: MISS (-1) — BTC ret=-4.195% th=3.000% (vol up) Next time: re-check the core driver and demand stronger confirming evidence before taking the trade.
• DP-2026-02-20-T03 [equities / SOXX]: FLAT (0) — A=SOXX ret=-2.053%, B=SPY ret=-0.364%, diff=-1.690%, th=2.000%, cmp=>= Next time: wait for a cleaner trigger or a tighter evaluation window before publishing the call.
• DP-2026-02-20-T05 [equities / TSLA]: HIT (+1) — TSLA return-band ret=-2.064% start=411.8200 end=403.3200 Next time: keep the thesis, but continue requiring the same confirmation quality before publishing.
• DP-2026-02-25-T01 [equities / SPY]: FLAT (0) — SPY Start=693.15 End=686.38 Return=-0.977% th=1.000% Next time: wait for a cleaner trigger or a tighter evaluation window before publishing the call.
• DP-2026-02-25-T02 [fx / USDJPY]: HIT (+1) — USDJPY 2026-03-02 range=1.008% th=1.500% (H=157.75 L=156.17 C=157.39) Next time: keep the thesis, but continue requiring the same confirmation quality before publishing.

Use this scorekeeping to calibrate conviction in the tactical, thesis, and monitoring sections that follow.

Assets of High Interest

Treat these worldview rows as the standing posterior state that should feed the tactical, portfolio, and monitoring sections below.

No AHI worldview snapshots persisted yet.

1. Trading Pulse — Tactical

• DP-2026-03-02-T01 CALL VOLATILITY UP VIX Horizon 1-5d Signal Grade A Why it matters: Iran conflict escalation is driving oil, gold, USD, and equity index dispersion. Cross-asset stress plus options demand suggests short-term realized vol remains elevated. Triggers Brent holds above 80, VIX holds above 22, and SPX futures fail to reclaim prior week VWAP. Invalidation Brent falls below 74 with VIX back below 18 and breadth improves for two consecutive sessions.
• DP-2026-03-02-T02 CALL BEARISH QQQ Horizon 1-5d Signal Grade B Why it matters: Risk-off tape and higher energy costs pressure high-beta equity cohorts, especially growth-heavy indices. Triggers QQQ closes below prior weekly low and semis underperform software by >1.5% daily. Invalidation QQQ reclaims prior weekly high and closes there with improving advance/decline breadth.
• DP-2026-03-02-T03 CALL BULLISH WTI Horizon 1-5d Signal Grade B Why it matters: Freight and macro feeds show escalating shipping and air-cargo disruption, supporting near-term crude/distillate risk premium. Triggers WTI remains above 70 and freight disruption headlines persist through week. Invalidation Hormuz transit normalizes quickly and crude loses 68 on closing basis.

2. Portfolio / Thesis Pulse — Weeks to Months

• DP-2026-03-02-P01 CALL RELATIVE XLE/SPY (ENERGY vs BROAD EQUITIES) Horizon 4-12w Signal Grade B Why it matters: Persistent geopolitical risk and supply uncertainty favor cash-flowing energy over duration-sensitive broad benchmarks. Triggers XLE/SPY relative trend remains above 50-day average and crude backwardation persists. Invalidation Ceasefire/de-escalation plus crude mean reversion below 65 for multiple weeks.
• DP-2026-03-02-P02 CALL VOLATILITY UP Horizon 4-12w Signal Grade B Why it matters: Macro narratives are split between war-driven inflation and growth slowdown, increasing probability of regime shifts and larger swings. Triggers 10Y yields remain range-unstable with oil >75 and policy-cut expectations reprice. Invalidation Inflation momentum cools decisively while geopolitics de-escalate and credit spreads compress.

3. Crypto / Ethereum Add-On (ONLY if material)

• DP-2026-03-02-C01 CALL BEARISH BTC Horizon 1-2w Signal Grade B Why it matters: ETF outflow pressure and risk-off macro conditions outweigh isolated long-term bullish narratives. Triggers BTC fails to hold 66k equivalent support zone and ETH underperforms BTC. Invalidation Sustained ETF flow reversal and BTC reclaim of prior distribution range highs.
• DP-2026-03-02-C02 CALL NEUTRAL ETH Horizon 4-12w Signal Grade C Why it matters: Ethereum roadmap updates are constructive structurally, but macro liquidity and risk appetite dominate near-term price behavior. Triggers Developer upgrade milestones progress without disruption and risk assets stabilize. Invalidation Execution delays plus continued funding stress in crypto risk assets.

4. Signal Radar

• Gold and USD are acting as simultaneous defensive beneficiaries.
• Freight/energy headlines imply inflation beta remains asymmetric to the upside.
• Crypto sentiment remains fragile despite selective structural narratives.

5. Watchlist & Alerts

• Alert if Brent > 85 persists for two sessions.
• Alert if QQQ closes back above prior weekly high (bearish tactical view invalidation).
• Alert if BTC reclaims and holds above prior range highs with improving ETF flow.