🧾 Retro — Calls Expiring Today

• DP-2026-02-20-T01 [equities / SPY]: HIT (+1) — SPY ret=4.034% th=3.000% (vol up) Next time: keep the thesis, but continue requiring the same confirmation quality before publishing.
• DP-2026-02-20-T04 [crypto / BTC]: MISS (-1) — BTC Start=67672.94 End=65928.15 Return=-2.578% th=0.000% Next time: re-check the core driver and demand stronger confirming evidence before taking the trade.

Use this scorekeeping to calibrate conviction in the tactical, thesis, and monitoring sections that follow.

Assets of High Interest

Treat these worldview rows as the standing posterior state that should feed the tactical, portfolio, and monitoring sections below.

No AHI worldview snapshots persisted yet.

1. Trading Pulse — Tactical

• CALL VOLATILITY UP SPY [Horizon: 1-5d | Signal Grade: B] Why it matters: Cross-asset headlines are internally conflicted: equity AI optimism, crypto drawdown chatter, and geopolitical risk tails. That mix usually lifts intraday range before a clear directional break. Triggers SPY closes below prior 3-day low and VIX closes above prior 2-week median. Invalidation Two consecutive SPY closes above prior week high with VIX below prior 2-week median.
• CALL RELATIVE QQQ/IWM (Large-cap quality over small caps) [Horizon: 1-2w | Signal Grade: B] Why it matters: RSS flow shows frequent small-cap concern language and concentration in megacap/AI narratives. In uncertain growth quality, balance-sheet strength tends to outperform. Triggers QQQ:IWM relative ratio makes a fresh 20-day high. Invalidation IWM outperforms QQQ by more than 2% over 5 sessions.
• CALL BEARISH (Consumer Android complex proxy) [Horizon: 2-6w | Signal Grade: B] Why it matters: Memory-supply-crunch reporting points to unit-pressure risk in lower-end smartphones, with margin stress likely concentrated in weaker vendors. Triggers Additional shipment-guidance cuts or memory spot pricing acceleration. Invalidation Confirmed supply normalization timeline pulls forward or vendors post stable gross-margin guidance.

2. Portfolio / Thesis Pulse — Weeks to Months

• CALL NEUTRAL SPY (US growth nowcast vs sentiment gap) [Horizon: 4-12w | Signal Grade: B] Why it matters: Evidence shows resilient headline growth while household/business sentiment remains soft. That divergence supports selective exposure, not broad beta expansion. Triggers Labor-market softening or credit stress would push this to bearish; durable breadth improvement would push bullish. Invalidation Sustained broad earnings upgrades and improving consumer expectations data.
• CALL BULLISH (Energy and hard-asset cash-flow cohort) [Horizon: 4-12w | Signal Grade: B] Why it matters: Web evidence continues to emphasize commodity resilience themes, while macro uncertainty supports real-asset optionality in portfolios. Triggers Upward revisions in energy/cash-flow guidance and continued firm commodity term structure. Invalidation Sharp demand-destruction indicators or broad commodity curve contango reset.

3. Crypto / Ethereum Add-On (ONLY if material)

• CALL NEUTRAL BTC (BTC near-term trend, volatility elevated) [Horizon: 1-5d | Signal Grade: B] Why it matters: Crypto sources show simultaneous drawdown concern and meaningful ETF dip-buying inflows. Positioning appears two-way, favoring tactical levels over conviction trend. Triggers BTC reclaims prior swing resistance with improving perp basis. Invalidation Break below recent swing support with rising downside hedge demand.
• CALL RELATIVE BTC/ETH (BTC over higher-beta alt basket) [Horizon: 1-2w | Signal Grade: B] Why it matters: Legal/regulatory and exchange headlines are active, and in these phases market share often consolidates into higher-liquidity majors. Triggers BTC dominance extends while alt market breadth remains weak. Invalidation Broad alt participation improves with stable regulatory tone.

4. Signal Radar

• Policy/geopolitics: Iran/Cuba narrative risk remains a volatility amplifier; treat as scenario risk, not baseline.
• AI/semis spillover: Divergent reactions around AI leaders suggest crowding risk remains high.
• Consumer health: Sentiment-vs-GDP divergence remains unresolved and should gate cyclical conviction.

5. Watchlist & Alerts

• Alert: If SPY breaches weekly support while VIX rises, tighten gross and prefer relative trades.
• Alert: If QQQ/IWM ratio fails lower, rotate toward cyclicals and reduce quality tilt.
• Alert: BTC confirmation requires both price reclaim and derivative stabilization; avoid chasing single-candle moves.
• Verification-only checks to run intraday: major index levels, VIX regime, BTC funding/basis, and ETF flow continuation.