Daily Pulse - 2026-02-25

Earnings resilience and short-covering momentum support continuation while breadth remains constructive.

๐Ÿงพ Retro โ€” Calls Expiring Today No calls expiring today.

Use this scorekeeping to calibrate conviction in the tactical, thesis, and monitoring sections that follow.

Assets of High Interest

Treat these worldview rows as the standing posterior state that should feed the tactical, portfolio, and monitoring sections below.

No AHI worldview snapshots persisted yet.

  1. Trading Pulse โ€” Tactical
  • CALL BULLISH SPY (US equities tactical continuation) Horizon 1-5d Signal Grade B Why it matters: Earnings resilience and short-covering momentum support continuation while breadth remains constructive. Triggers SPY holds above prior day VWAP and QQQ confirms above prior-week high. Invalidation SPY daily close below prior-session low plus 10Y yield shock >15 bps in 48h.
  • CALL BULLISH USDJPY (USDJPY upside / JPY downside) Horizon 1-5d Signal Grade B Why it matters: Dovish BOJ nomination headlines keep policy divergence risk alive in the short window. Triggers USDJPY sustains above 156 and front-end Japan hike odds stay soft. Invalidation Hawkish BOJ communication and USDJPY break below 154.8.
  1. Portfolio / Thesis Pulse โ€” Weeks to Months
  • CALL NEUTRAL XLF (US housing finance policy transition) Horizon 4-12w Signal Grade B Why it matters: Potential MSR-related capital relief can improve bank participation, but execution and credit-cycle timing remain uncertain. Triggers Formal proposal details plus early stabilization in bank mortgage share. Invalidation Delayed policy path and fresh credit-quality stress.
  1. Crypto / Ethereum Add-On (ONLY if material)
  • CALL VOLATILITY UP BTC (BTC/ETH) Horizon 1-5d Signal Grade B Why it matters: Breakout testing and policy/governance headlines increase probability of wider intraday range. Triggers BTC acceptance above 69k with continued participation and ETH relative follow-through. Invalidation Failed breakout below 67k with shrinking market participation.
  1. Signal Radar
  • CALL VOLATILITY UP QQQ (rates + AI capex sensitivity) Horizon 1-2w Signal Grade C Why it matters: Auction quality variability and AI-energy bottleneck narratives can accelerate factor rotation. Triggers Weak auction follow-through and rising cross-asset realized volatility. Invalidation Clean auction sequence and broad volatility compression.
  1. Watchlist & Alerts
  • BOJ nominee communications and policy language shifts.
  • Mortgage-capital-rule proposal timing and scope.
  • BTC 67k/69k/70k levels and ETH/BTC confirmation.
  • Treasury auction quality and front-end repricing.